To determine whether to purchase the new component, we can perform an Expected Monetary Value (EMV) analysis for both scenarios: purchasing the component and not purchasing it.
1. Purchasing the New Component:
Probability of Success: 70% (0.7)
Profit if Successful: US$500,000
EMV of Success: 0.7 * $500,000 = $350,000
Probability of Failure: 30% (0.3)
Additional Cost if Failed: US$50,000
EMV of Failure: 0.3 * (-$50,000) = -$15,000
Cost of Component: -$100,000
Total EMV: $350,000 (success) - $15,000 (failure) - $100,000 (cost) = $235,000
2. Not Purchasing the New Component:
Probability of Failure: 80% (0.8)
Cost if Failed: US$250,000
EMV of Failure: 0.8 * (-$250,000) = -$200,000
Probability of Success: 20% (0.2)
Profit if Successful: US$0 (assuming no additional profit without the component)
EMV of Success: 0.2 * $0 = $0
Total EMV: $0 (success) - $200,000 (failure) = -$200,000
Comparing the two scenarios, purchasing the new component yields a positive EMV of $235,000, whereas not purchasing it results in a negative EMV of -$200,000. Therefore, from a risk management perspective, it is advisable to purchase the new component.
PMI Risk Management Study Guide References:
The PMI-RMP Exam Preparation Study Guide discusses the application of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) analysis in decision-making under uncertainty, providing a structured approach to evaluate potential financial outcomes.
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