In accordance with the PMBOK® Guide, specifically within the Estimate Costs process, Analogous Estimating (also known as top-down estimating) relies heavily on Expert Judgment to adjust for differences between past and current projects.
Mechanism: Analogous estimating uses the actual cost of previous, similar projects as the basis for estimating the cost of the current project. It is frequently used when there is a limited amount of detailed information about the project (e.g., in the early phases).
The Role of Expert Judgment: Because no two projects are identical, expert judgment is required to determine the degree of similarity and to make adjustments for known differences in complexity, scale, technology, or environmental factors.
Accuracy and Cost:
Lower Accuracy: It is generally less accurate than other techniques like Bottom-Up estimating.
Lower Cost/Time: It is significantly faster and less expensive to perform.
Condition for Success: It is most reliable when the previous projects are truly similar in fact and not just in appearance, and the project team members preparing the estimates have the requisite expertise.
Comparison with Other Options:
Project management software (B): While software can help track and calculate estimates, it is a tool for data management rather than the underlying technique upon which analogous estimating " relies. "
Vendor bid analysis (C): This is a technique used to estimate costs by analyzing what external providers are charging or bidding for a piece of work.
Reserve analysis (D): This technique is used to determine the amount of contingency and management reserves needed to account for cost uncertainty; it is applied after the initial estimates are developed.
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