In accordance with the PMBOK® Guide, specifically within the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process, Sensitivity Analysis is the primary technique used to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project.
Mechanism: Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project by examining the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being studied when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline values.
The Tornado Diagram: The typical display for this analysis is a Tornado Diagram. This bar chart is used to compare the relative importance and variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. The variables are ranked by the width of the spread, with the " widest " bars (most sensitive) at the top and the " narrowest " at the bottom, giving it a funnel or tornado shape.
Application: It is particularly useful for prioritizing risks where a small change in a single variable (like the cost of a specific raw material) could result in a massive deviation in the overall project budget or schedule.
Comparison with Other Options:
Cost risk simulation analysis (A): This is a broader application of modeling (like Monte Carlo) to see the total potential cost of the project, but it doesn ' t isolate the individual risk with the most impact as clearly as sensitivity analysis.
Expected monetary value analysis (B): EMV ($EMV = P \times I$) is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen. It is often used in Decision Tree Analysis.
Modeling and simulation (C): This is the overarching category (including Monte Carlo) that uses a model to translate specified uncertainties of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. Sensitivity analysis is a specific type of modeling used for prioritization.
Contribute your Thoughts:
Chosen Answer:
This is a voting comment (?). You can switch to a simple comment. It is better to Upvote an existing comment if you don't have anything to add.
Submit