According to the PMBOK® Guide, a Tornado Diagram is a specific graphical representation used within the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process to display the results of a Sensitivity Analysis.
Sensitivity Analysis: This technique helps to determine which individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty have the most potential impact on project outcomes. It correlates variations in project outcomes with variations in elements of the quantitative risk model.
Tornado Diagram: The diagram is a special type of bar chart used to compare the relative importance and variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. In this chart:
The Y-axis contains the various individual risks.
The X-axis represents the spread or correlation of the uncertainty (usually in terms of cost or time).
The bars are ordered by the size of the calculated impact, with the largest impact at the top, creating a " tornado " shape. This allows the project manager to quickly identify which risks deserve the most attention.
Why other options are incorrect:
B. Monte Carlo analysis: While a tornado diagram can be derived from the data used in a simulation, the simulation itself is a computerized mathematical technique that provides a range of possible outcomes and their probabilities. The specific tool for visualizing sensitivity is the tornado diagram.
C. Expected monetary value (EMV) analysis: EMV is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen. It is typically visualized through decision trees rather than tornado diagrams.
D. Decision tree analysis: This is a diagramming and calculation technique used to evaluate a specific situation under uncertainty. It helps in choosing between several alternative courses of action. Its visual representation is a tree-like structure, not a tornado diagram.
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