Pass the PRMIA PRM Certification 8010 Questions and answers with CertsForce

Model risk is the risk that a model built for estimating a variable will produce erroneous estimates. Model risk is caused by a number of factors, including:

a) Misspecifying the model: For example, using a normal distribution when it is not justified.

b) Model misuse: For example, using a model built to estimate bond prices to estimate equity prices

c) Parameter estimation errors: In particular, parameters that are subjectively determined can be subject to significant parameter estimation errors

d) Programming errors: Errors in coding the model as part of computer implementation may not be detected by end users

e) Data errors: Errors in data used for building the model may also introduce model risk

Therefore the correct answer is d, as all the choices are a source of model risk.

Ultimately, the objective of the operational risk severity estimation exercise is to calculate the 99.9th percentile loss over a one year horizon; and everything else we do with data, collecting loss information, modeling, curve fitting etc revolves around this objective. If we cannot estimate the 99.9th percentile loss accurately, then not much else matters. Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.

Minimizing the combination of fitting and approximation errors is one of the things we do witha view to better estimating the operational loss distribution. Likewise, empirical loss data generally is range bound because corporations do not require employees to log losses less than an threshold, and high value losses are generally rare. This problemis addressed by extrapolating both large and small losses, something that impacts the performance of our model. Likewise, one of the objectives of scenario analysis is to fill data gaps by generating plausible scenarios. Yet while all these are real issues to address, the primary problem we are trying to solve is estimating the 0.999th quantile.

Choice 'd' represents a risk that does not arise from its holdings of mortgages. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

All the other risks identified are correct - the bank faces interest rate, default and prepayment risks on its mortgages.

The cumulative probability of default for the security for the 5 years is [1 - (1 - probability of default upto year 4)*(1 - probability of default in year 5)]. An easier way to think about this is that the Probability of survival till year 5 = (Probability of survival till year 4 * Probability of survival during year 5). Using the relationship that probability of default = 1 - probability of survival, we can calculate the required probability in all cases.

In this case, the cumulative probability of default for the security for 5 years = 1 - (1 - 11.47%)*(1 - 5%) = 15.8695%, therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

A LIBOR based loan requires cash to move from the lenderto the borrower in the amount of the notional. The Overnight Index Swap requires only the exchange of interest payments, and therefore represents less risk.

Therefore the LIBOR based loan is a riskier exposure.

The LIBOR is generally higher than the OIS. In fact, the difference between the two, the LIBOR-OIS spread, is a standard measure of the risk premium in the market that goes up when the risk of default by counterparty banks is considered high. This is because when the market perceives the risk of default to be high, the participants need a risk premium to take on the default risk which is considerably lesser with the OIS.

All the factors listed above contributed to systemic failure. Liquidity risk was not on the radar of regulators, and was a second priority for risk managers, and most of the focus was oncapital adequacy as liquidity was thought to be an unlikely problem. Liquidity, regardless of capital adequacy, was the primary cause of failure of a number of institutions during the crisis.

Similarly, stress tests proved to be much milder than the shocks that were actually experienced, and the strategy of 'originate and distribute' implied that the mortgage and other debt originators had no interest in any due diligence as they intended to package and sell the debt to other investors.

Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

Odds are the ratio between the probability of the occurence of an event to the probability that the event does not occur.

If odds are H, then p = H/(1 + H) and H = p/(1-p). In this case the odds are 1:5, or 1/5, therefore the correct answer is Choice 'a', equal to (1/5)/(1 + 1/5) = 1/6 = 16.67%. All other choices are incorrect.

The difference between the yields oncorporate bonds and the risk free rate is called the corporate bond spread. Widening of the spread means that corporate bonds yield more, and their yield curve shifts upwards, driving down bond prices. The increase in the spread is a consequence of the market risk from holding these interest rate instruments, which is a part of market risk. If the reduction in the value of the portfolio were to be caused by a change in the credit rating of the bonds held, it would have been a loss arising due to credit risk. Counterparty risk and liquidity risk are not relevant for this question. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

The change in the price of a security that follows a Weiner process isdetermined by its standard deviation and expected return. To get the price itself, we need to add this change in price to the current price. Therefore the future price in a Weiner process is determined by all three of current price, expected return and standard deviation.

Choice 'a' is the correct answer. The other choices represent non-sensical statements.