Which of the following represents a riskier exposure for a bank: A LIBOR based loan, or an Overnight Indexed Swap? Which of the two rates is expected to be higher?
Assume the same counterparty and the same notional.
A LIBOR based loan requires cash to move from the lenderto the borrower in the amount of the notional. The Overnight Index Swap requires only the exchange of interest payments, and therefore represents less risk.
Therefore the LIBOR based loan is a riskier exposure.
The LIBOR is generally higher than the OIS. In fact, the difference between the two, the LIBOR-OIS spread, is a standard measure of the risk premium in the market that goes up when the risk of default by counterparty banks is considered high. This is because when the market perceives the risk of default to be high, the participants need a risk premium to take on the default risk which is considerably lesser with the OIS.
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