A Cycle Time scatterplot is the best chart to determine when a single item that has not been started will be finished. This chart shows the distribution of cycle times for completed work items. By analyzing the historical data, you can estimate the likely cycle time for a new item.

Here's how to use the Cycle Time scatterplot:

Identify the average cycle time:Calculate the average cycle time for similar types of work items.

Consider variability:Look at the range of cycle times to understand the variability in delivery times.

Estimate completion time:Based on the average cycle time and variability, estimate when the new item is likely to be completed.

While the other charts (CFD, Throughput run chart, and WIP Aging chart) provide valuable insights into the overall workflow, they are not as effective for predicting the completion time of a single item.