A “cone of uncertainty” is a graphical representation of the evolution of the amount of uncertainty during a project. It shows that at the beginning of a project, there is a high degree of variability and unpredictability in the estimates of the scope, cost, time, and value of the product. As the project progresses, more information and feedback are gathered, and the uncertainty decreases, reaching zero when the product is delivered and validated. A “cone of uncertainty” can be used to visualize the uncertainty of the potential value that a Scrum Team delivers over time, and to guide the empirical process of inspection and adaptation. By using a “cone of uncertainty”, a Scrum Team can:

Align the expectations of the stakeholders and customers with the reality of the complex and dynamic environment.

Avoid making premature or unrealistic commitments based on inaccurate or incomplete estimates.

Embrace change and experimentation as opportunities to learn and deliver more value.

Inspect the actual value delivered and the feedback received, and adapt the product vision, strategy, and backlog accordingly.

Forecast the range of possible outcomes and the level of confidence for each Sprint and release.

The other options are not valid uses of a “cone of uncertainty”. A “cone of uncertainty” does not represent the relative level of difficulty for predicting the velocity of individual team members, as velocity is a measure of the amount of work done by the whole Scrum Team, not by individuals. A “cone of uncertainty” does not rapidly identify and prioritize all uncertainties, as uncertainties are not always known or quantifiable, and may change over time. A “cone of uncertainty” does not determine whether to cut quality, similar to the “Iron Triangle” of project management, as quality is not a variable that can be traded off inScrum, but a non-negotiable aspect of the Definition of Done and the value proposition of the product.

References:

Professional Scrum Product Owner™ II Certification

Managing Products with Agility

Cone of Uncertainty - Wikipedia