Empirical probability is based on observed data collected from experiments, surveys, simulations, or repeated trials. It is calculated as the relative frequency of an event: number of times the event occurs divided by the total number of trials or observations. For example, if a machine produces 12 defective items in a sample of 300, the empirical probability of a defect is 12/300 = 0.04. This differs from classical or theoretical probability, which is based on equally likely outcomes and mathematical structure, such as a fair die having probability 1/6 for each face. It also differs from subjective probability, which is based on personal judgment or expert belief rather than observed frequency. The word “empirical” signals evidence obtained through observation, so observed frequency is the correct basis. Study Guide references/topics: empirical probability, relative frequency, observed data, probability interpretation.
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